Weekly Crop Commentary - 12/20/2024

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. It's hard to believe Christmas is next week, but here we are. The grain markets sure had their ups and downs this week. The bean complex this week grabbed most of the attention.

The big mid-week selloff seemed to be spurred by the collapse in the Brazilian Real vs the US Dollar. This, coupled with the big crop expectation, sent the Brazilian farmers on a bean-selling spree. Basis levels there were also weaker, making that story more defining. Now, things bounced back to end the week. The Real strengthened, we had a good export sales report, plus a flash sale from the USDA. Crush margins in the US for beans continued to work lower as we still struggle to get rid of meal. There is a lot of meal on the streets of Chicago, and no one seems to want to go get it.

Corn this week seemed to be a bit quieter. Basis and futures seem to be leveling out and calming down. There seems to be ample amounts of corn moving as most ethanol plants are running restricted hours. Ethanol margins are getting hit hard to end the week. This could be a result of the uncertainty in the direction of 45Z, which is supposed to take effect on January 1. The parts and pieces are always moving. It is important to have goals set and orders in place, so if those happen, action is taken. Thank you all, once again, for your business, and have a very Merry Christmas.

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

Only 5 days until Christmas! It looks like it will be a rainy one if we do see precipitation. It seems like there hasn’t been a white Christmas (or December) in forever!

Soybeans took the hardest hit this week but have recovered some at the end of the week. The soybean crush report that came out on Monday was reported well below expectations, and beans did not respond well to it. Additionally, beans have been taking hits from basis remaining mostly flat, our long-term demand is mostly met, we have ample supply, and South America is projecting to have a massive crop coming…it sounds like beans need a vacation.

It was reported that Mexican wheat planting was down, which could lead to an increase in US demand for wheat, but nothing is seen in the markets yet. It is something to keep an eye on as we enter the new year.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Good afternoon! The grain market has been quite festive with the reds and greens flashing on the screen this week. A lack of bullish info during the holiday season can make for volatile markets, and we’ve seen that this week. Soy oil led the bean complex lower midweek, but soybeans have tried to recover some here to close out the week. Soybeans are down about a dime since last Friday, and cash corn has managed to pick up a nickel. All eyes are patiently waiting for the USDA WASDE report coming on January 10th.

Mother Nature has helped to replenish the water tables some this month with 2” of rain over the last couple of weeks. While it makes a muddy mess, I’d rather have these dreary days than shovel snow! The Drought Monitor looks better than it did at the end of harvest, but about 63% of the Midwest is still under some level of drought.

I’m off work next week, so these are my last comments of 2024. Thank you for a great year. Have a wonderful Christmas and a safe and prosperous New Year!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon. Christmas is almost here. The grain markets this week have been a little interesting. On Wednesday this week, we saw Jan25 beans break through long-term support of 9.75 CBOT. We had tested that level a couple of times over the last few months. But each time we tested it, we closed slightly above that level on that day and never closed below it, until this week. This Wednesday, we tested that 9.75 level again, but this time, not only did we close below 9.75 we were down 25¢ to close at 9.51 ¾. I had real concerns that we could be moving to a lower support level. But yesterday, we closed up 11¢, and today we are up 13¢, and the Jan25 CBOT is sitting at 9.76. But I am still not bullish toward the bean market. This may be an opportunity to market some more of those beans.

Corn continues to stay supported as we sit and wait on the USDA’s Jan 10th report for final 2024 production numbers. The Jan report is known for its surprises. But March CBOT corn is sitting near the top of the chart. Rewarding it a little, if you have not sold any corn yet, it may be something to consider. Give any of us a call to talk more in detail.

I would like to conclude today by wishing all of you a very Merry Christmas. I hope you all have a wonderful and blessed time with your family and friends.